Posted on Mon, Jan 04, 2010
This is my return blog post after my hip replacement in mid-December. At that point, from my hospital room at Hospital for Special Surgery in New York, I wrote about Getting Into S”hip” Shape for 2010. Well 2010 is here, and like many, I am trying to figure out the trends for 2010, not to mention the coming decade. So, in order to begin to navigate the days and months ahead, I looked to the predictions from leaders in the digital media business. Today I focus on John Battelle’s Predictions 2010.
John Battelle, in addition to maintaining an incredibly thoughtful blog, is the Co-Founder of the Web 2.0 Summit with Tim O’Reilly, the Founder and CEO of Federated Media and an accomplished author. Since 2004, John Battelle has been using his blog to publish his predictions for the coming year in early January. In December, John then follows up with an assessment of how his predictions have fared. I started reading these posts back in 2007 and have been very impressed at his record. While he admittedly “whiffs” on a few each year, in general, he is pretty spot on. You can check out how he did with his 2009 predictions here.
So, in light of his track record, here are his top 12 web trends for this year and my thoughts [read his post for further elaboration of his points]:
- “2010 will mark the end of the US dominance on the web.” I spend too much time reading Fareed Zakaria and Thomas Friedman not to agree with that this will be inevitable in this new decade, but I am not sure that 2010 will be the cross-over year.
- “Google will make a corporate decision ot become seen as a software brand rather than as ‘just a search engine’.” With Google’s forays into Chrome OS, Android, Docs and January 5th’s pending announcement of Nexus One. John believes that Google is becoming “a newer, more open version of Microsoft”. I don’t disagree, but I also think Google is also very focused on Apple’s share of the smart phone market. What was most interesting though about this prediction was John’s view that Google will “begin to minimize its efforts in media, including social media, seeking to embrace and partner rather than compete.” While Google has not been very successful at social media to date, they also know that social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook are becoming increasingly important for search.
- “2010 will see a major piracy brouhaha, not unlike the AOL search debacle but around social and/or advertising related data.” I couldn’t agree more given the battles amongst agencies, their clients and ad networks on data ownership and the various consumer interest groups lobbying Congress.
- “By the year’s end the web will have seen a significant new development in user interface design, one that will have gained rapid adoption amongst many ‘tier one’ sites, in particularly those which cover the industry.” This sounds interesting and I hope that it comes true. I just don’t know who will be the leader here.
- “Apple’s ‘iTablet’ will disappoint.” As a total Mac aficionado, I never like to short Apple products. Yet, when the word was out today about it costing between $ 900 and $ 1,000, the risk of it disappointing has gone up in my view. I don’t think I will be waiting on line at the Apple store the day it is released – at least not for this version!
- “2010 will see the rise of an open gaming platform, such as 2009 was the year of the open phone platform (Android).” This could be huge. In addition, having spent some time business-wise with game developers in 2009, this prediction seems to fit in with the zeitgeist of the industry right now.
- “Traditional search results will deteriorate to the point that folks begin to question search’s validity as a service.” People are looking for more customized service from search. Securing 10,000 results from a search query where the first four results appear to be relevant is not fully helping people in the way that they want. Services like Mahalo are picking up steam as people are looking for more from search.
- “Bing will move to a strong but distant second in search, eclipsing Yahoo in search.” Of course, they will as Microsoft now powers Yahoo Search! Plus Bing is a pretty nifty service.
- “Internet advertising will see a sharp in, and not just from increased research and social media platform [PPC/PPA] spending.” John believes that a lot of this spending will come from brands. All I know is that I am betting on this myself with my own business so he better be right!
- “The tech/internet industry will see a surge in quality IPO’s.” This sounds highly plausible as many internet companies are reaching break-even and profitability at historically fast rates. It will also be a boon to the economy.
- “We’ll see a major step forward in breaking the man/machine barrier.” He means the integration of “technology and biology.” As the recipient of a new hip in the last few weeks, I get this. Yet, John is also talking about the promise of greater things that are portrayed in movies like “Avatar” which I still have to see.
- “I’ll figure out what to do with my book SOGOTP so to speak” Well, now I know what “SOGOTP” means. Of course, I am feeling embarrassed for not knowing this! Regardless, I loved John’s first book The Search: How Google and Its Rivals Rewrote the Business and Transformed Our Culture and am very much opening he “GOTP” and writes another great book in 2010!
So what do you think will happen in the coming year? Tomorrow I will look at Mashable’s Pete Cashmore’s predictions from a recent article he wrote for CNN.com.
Posted on Tue, Nov 03, 2009
Today’s Daily Bytes, albeit a bit tardy in posting, is about strategy. First off, a post by David Armano in the Harvard Business Review blog looks at the top 6 social meedia tends for 2010 that businesses should keep in mind with their planning. A post from looks at how social media confuses business and reminds us that social media is about the strategy and not the tactics. Finally, this post looks at the five megatrends that businesses can’t ignore going into 2010.
Six Social Media Trends for 2010
David Armano, a senior principal at the Dachis Group and a distinguished blogger, points out that 2009 year marked a year of expansive growth in social media. With this growth, social media has become far more ingrained in all of us professionally and personally. Against this backdrop, David points out six significant social media trends for 2010, including:
- social media begins to look less social. Comment: sad but true, the onslaught of Twitter lists will contribute to this.
- corporations look to scale. Comment: scale will be critical to encourage more social media adoption across leading organizations. This will also require more corporate training in social media.
- social businesses becomes serious play. Comment: the article looks at Foursquare as a precursor of this . . . I don’t disagree, but I certainly would like to find more folks over 40 like myself engaging with it!
- your corporation will have a social media policy (and it might actually be enforced). Comment: I would go beyond “might” and say that it “must” be enforced. It amazes me how many companies have not yet cued into this as an issue.
- mobile becomes a social media lifeline. Comment: I agree here but we need better Twitter apps for the iphone and blackberry like what is available to engage in social media.
- sharing no longer means e-mail. Comment: I agree, but e-mail is still what we all check for more often.
What do you think about these trends? Do you think there are other trends for you to consider as to how you integrate social media into your business strategy?
Social Media Confuses Businesses
In this post, My Creative Team Thinking blog points out that a recent study from Citibank/GfK points out that 75 % of small businesses don’t feel social media is working for them and according to Gartner, the Fortune 1000 companies will be experimenting with social media in 2010. The post points out that the success of these efforts have more to do with strategy than tactics.
5 marketing trends you can’t ignore
Adam Kleinberg, CEO of Traction wrote a post this week in iMedia about the five megatrends that businesses can’t ignore and provides real world examples of companies capitalzing on these trends. It is an inspirational piece; in the meantime, here are the five megatrends:
- Mass collaboration is powering the new economy and Apple is “the brand that gets it”
- Constant connectivity in an on-demand world and Sprint is “the brand that gets it”
- Globalization: Making the world a smaller place and Aliababa.com is “the brand that gets it”
- Pervasive distrust in big corporations and Ally Bank is “the brand that gets it”
- A global sense of urgency to fix the problems of a modern world and IBM is “the brand that gets it”